October 23, 2004: Bush leads Kerry by 12 points in rural battleground
PRESS RELEASE
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2004
CONTACT: Tim Marema www.ruralstrategies.org
WHITESBURG, Ky., -- Republican George W. Bush maintains a 12-point lead over Democrat John Kerry among rural voters in battleground states, according to the most recent poll by the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America.
Among likely voters in rural parts of 17 swing states, 53 percent favor Bush while 41 percent favor Kerry. The result is essentially unchanged from September, when Bush led the rural battleground by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent.
"President Bush has solidified his vote in the rural areas," said Bill Greener, a Republican strategist and an adviser to the poll. "I believe this will be sufficient to tip the scales in several critical states and give the president a victory overall."
Adviser Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, said the survey showed Kerry continued to perform better on economic issues among rural voters.
"For Democrats the good news is that Kerry improved his standing among rural blue-collar voters," Greenberg said. "If the discussion moves to economic recovery in rural America, Kerry is going to continue to pick up votes there."
The 2004 campaign has seen an increasing emphasis put on attracting rural voters, said Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies, which commissioned the poll.
"When we see Bush speaking in front of hay bales and Kerry walking a field with a shotgun cradled in his arm, we get the message that the rural vote is important," Davis said. "This election could very well be determined in the next few days by the rural margins in a few states."
The poll also found that:
· Bush continues to receive heavy support from devout Evangelical Christians in the rural battleground (73 percent). Rural mainline Protestants and Catholics were more evenly split between the two candidates (51 percent prefer Kerry).
· Bush has strong support from rural gun owners. Among those who own three or more guns, Bush leads by 22 points, 59 to 37 percent. Non gun-owners in the rural battleground prefer Kerry by 9 points, 52 to 43 percent.
· Bush lost ground among rural women in the past month, moving from a 10 point advantage in September (53 percent Bush to 43 percent Kerry) to a 7 point advantage in October (51 to 44 percent).
· Bush improved among rural senior citizens, going from 42 percent support in September to 53 percent in October.
· Kerry improved his performance with rural blue collar voters, increasing from 43 percent in September to 50 percent in October.
· Kerry improved among rural older women, from 46 percent in September to 50 percent in October.
· Rural battleground voters are slightly more optimistic than the rest of the country about the direction the nation is headed, but nearly half (49 percent) still think the country is on the wrong track. Nationally, 55 percent of likely voters think the nation is on the wrong track.
The nonpartisan poll was commissioned on behalf of the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America, composed of groups and individuals across the United States who seek to improve opportunities for rural communities. The coalition is named for the fact that 80 percent of the nation's land area is rural, as are 55 million of its residents.
The poll interviewed 513 likely voters on Oct. 19-20 from non-metropolitan counties in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.