|
McCain leads by 10 in rural battleground
Obama keeps rural vote more competitive than 2004
PRESS RELEASE
CONTACT: Chavvah Lister, 865/688-9546, chavvah@ruralstrategies.org
WHITESBURG, Ky. -- Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 10 points among rural voters in battleground states, according to a poll released Sept. 22, 2008, by the Center for Rural Strategies on behalf of the National Rural Assembly.
Among likely voters in rural parts of 13 swing states, 51 percent favored McCain while 41 percent supported Obama.
Those numbers are virtually unchanged since the last Rural Strategies/National Rural Assembly poll in May. But other measurements in the poll indicate that McCain's popularity is rising with rural voters. The poll also shows Sarah Palin was a popular running-mate pick among rural voters.
"Every trend line indicates that John McCain is headed toward the level of support among rural voters that will be required for a victory in November," said Bill Greener, a Republican strategist and advsier for the poll. "On every issue and personal measure, Sen. McCain showed considerable positive movement -- the economy, handling of taxes, being on your side, bringing about the right kind of change and sharing values -- all demonstrate that Sen. McCain is headed in the right direction."
Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, which conducted the poll on behalf of Rural Strategies, pointed out that McCain's overall improvement did not translate into more voters preferring him in the November election.
"We think that's because he has failed to make an effective argument on the one issue rural voters care about most -- the economy," she said. "Rural voters seem to be trying to decide which candidate can best address their economic concerns, and that means the rural battleground could be more competitive than we saw in 2004."
Republican George W. Bush relied on strong rural margins in battleground states to help him win the White House in 2000 and 2004. Obama is faring better in the rural battleground in 2008 than did Democrat John Kerry, who was down by 13 points against Bush at a similar point in the 2004 campaign.
"Rural voters will play an important role in this election," said Tim Marema, vice president of the Center for Rural Strategies. "The question is whether the campaigns will translate that importance into a conversation about rural issues and the future of rural communities."
Republican vice presidential nominee Palin was popular with poll respondents. Half said the selection of the Alaska governor as McCain's running mate makes them more likely to vote for McCain, while 31 percent said it makes them less likely to do so. Two-thirds said Palin represents the values of rural communities, and 54 percent said she was ready to be vice president and assume the presidency if needed.
The top issue on rural voters' minds is the economy and jobs, selected by 51 percent of the respondents. Other top issues were energy and gas prices (25 percent), the war in Iraq (21 percent), health care (18 percent) and terrorism and national security (12 percent). Moral values and illegal immigration ranked last on the list of voters' concerns, with 9 percent each.
The nonpartisan poll was commissioned by the Center for Rural Strategies on behalf of the National Rural Assembly, a group of rural leaders that seeks to increase national awareness of the importance of rural communities. More information on the Rural Assembly is available at www.ruralassembly.org. Rural Strategies is a nonprofit organization located in Whitesburg, Ky.
The survey polled 742 respondents Sept. 16-18 from rural parts of the battleground states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.6 at a 95 percent confidence level.
# # #
NOTE:
Anna Greenberg, Bill Greener and Tim Marema are available for interviews by contacting Chavvah Lister, chavvah@ruralstrategies.org, 865/688-9546.
Go to the previous Rural Tracker page
|
