September 13, 2004: Bush leads Kerry by 13 points in rural battleground

Second Rural Strategies poll shows Bush increases lead by 4 points since June

 

WHITESBURG, Ky., -- George Bush has increased his lead among rural voters in battleground states, according to a new poll commissioned by the Center for Rural Strategies on behalf of a national coalition of nonprofit organizations.

 

The nonpartisan poll of 17 battleground states found that rural voters preferred Bush 55 percent to 42 percent, a margin of 13 percentage points. In June, a similar poll found Bush's lead in the rural battleground was 9 percentage points, 51 to 42 percent. The most recent poll was conducted Sept. 6-11, on the heels of the Republican National Convention.

 

The nonpartisan poll was commissioned on behalf of the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America, composed of groups and individuals across the United States who seek to improve opportunities for rural communities. The coalition is named for the fact that 80 percent of the nation's land area is rural, as are 55 million of its residents.

 

"This is good news for George Bush, but the rural vote remains critical in the rest of the campaign," said Bill Greener, a Republican strategist and an adviser to the poll. "Rural voters are the only group still available to Kerry in any numbers, so they are going to continue to be important."

 

Poll adviser Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, said she thought Kerry would begin to close the gap among rural battleground voters as the campaign heads into the final weeks.

 

"I believe the race will tighten and become more competitive when the campaigns move to greater attention to economic issues, an area of great concern for rural voters and more hospitable terrain for Kerry," Greenberg said.

 

Because the election is close, rural voters will play an important role in the November election, said Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies. "We've been encouraged that the candidates have increasingly been showing up in small towns and rural communities," Davis said. "But rural America is more than a campaign backdrop, and we'd like to see even more discussion from the candidates about their vision of the future for rural America."

 

The poll interviewed 536 likely voters from non-metropolitan counties in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

 

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.